Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production
نویسندگان
چکیده
The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power integration. Today forecasters are challenged in providing forecasts able to handle extreme situations. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind farm called ramps. The first one provides probabilistic forecasts using large temporal scales information about ramps. The second method uses ensembles to generate confidence intervals allowing to better estimate the timing of ramps. The two methods are tested and results are given for
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